When King Mohammed VI laid out Morocco’s energy transition strategy in 2008, the country was importing 97% of its energy. Renewable energy was expensive, untested at scale in developing countries, and the profitability of large solar and wind projects was far from certain. The strategy was, by any honest assessment, a wager.
Seventeen years later, with Brent crude surging past $100 per barrel following the US-Israeli war on Iran and severe disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, that wager looks prescient. But it also reveals an uncomfortable truth: Morocco still imports over 90% of its energy needs.
This post is based on a chapter Hugues Bouthinon-Dumas and I published in a collective book by ESSEC Business School professors where we offer a critical assessment of Morocco’s energy transition — its origins, its achievements, and the significant challenges that remain. The analysis in this post extends through the current geopolitical crisis of March 2026. Here are three key takeaways.
1. Impressive progress, but the headline numbers deserve scrutiny
Morocco has reached an estimated 45–46% of installed electricity capacity from renewable sources by late 2025, up from 32% in 2009. The country has built world-class solar and wind infrastructure, attracted billions in international investment, and positioned itself as Africa’s renewable energy leader.
But installed capacity is not the same as actual electricity generation. Wind and solar together accounted for roughly 20–25% of electricity actually produced in 2024. Coal still generated nearly 60%. This distinction matters enormously: investment momentum and actual decarbonization are not the same thing. A country celebrated worldwide for the Noor Ouarzazate solar complex still runs overwhelmingly on coal.
2. A state-capacity success that has yet to become an industrial transformation
Morocco excelled at what states do well when political will is strong: mobilizing land, creating dedicated institutions like MASEN, attracting international finance, and deploying large-scale infrastructure projects. The organizational architecture is genuinely impressive and offers a model other African countries can adapt.
Where the transition has fallen short is in creating domestic value chains, broad employment, and locally rooted innovation. The communities living near major projects — in Ouarzazate, Midelt, Guelmim-Oued Noun — have not seen proportional improvements in their daily lives. The Siemens-Gamesa blade factory near Tangiers closed. Decentralized solar solutions that could directly benefit rural populations received far less attention than mega-projects.
As a member of the Special Commission on the Development Model (CSMD) appointed by King Mohammed VI, I contributed to a report that warned precisely about this gap. The New Development Model, presented in 2021, confirmed the energy transition as a strategic pillar but insisted it cannot remain a standalone technical domain. Energy policy must become a lever for structural economic and social transformation, not an impressive but isolated achievement.
3. The Iran crisis sharpens every strategic choice
The current geopolitical crisis simultaneously vindicates Morocco’s early bet and exposes how much remains to be done. Every megawatt-hour produced domestically from wind or solar is a megawatt-hour that does not depend on disrupted shipping lanes or volatile fossil fuel markets. The cost competitiveness of renewables, already improving, looks even more favorable at current oil prices.
But Morocco now faces a multiplication of competing demands on its growing but still limited clean electricity. The country needs clean power for water desalination (an existential priority given one of the most acute water crises in the Mediterranean basin), for green hydrogen production (a $35 billion ambition), for industrial competitiveness in European markets facing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and potentially for direct electricity exports to Europe. Even on an accelerated investment trajectory, choices will have to be made. These allocation decisions, not the construction of additional solar panels, are the real strategic challenge ahead.
The bottom line
Morocco’s energy transition is a genuine achievement and a source of valuable lessons for Africa and the developing world. But the narrative of success needs nuance. The question is no longer whether Morocco was right to bet on renewables, the 2026 crisis has settled that question emphatically. The question is whether the country can move from an impressive but partial energy transition to a comprehensive, integrated, sustainable and socially inclusive development model.
Link to the book: